The recent ouster of Sam Altman from his position—while shrouded in mystery and likely to be reversed—underscores a broader theme that resonates deeply within the AI industry. This episode exemplifies the intrinsic unpredictability of the AI sector, where even its creators have little idea on the paths ahead.

"Creative difference" in the visions for the future was the reason behind the original "Attention is All You Need" team split. Whether it was Elon Musk's cutting off the ties with OpenAI or various Google teams' divergent paths for transformer models, the field is plagued by deep schisms among its thought leaders, which extend far beyond public discourse on privacy, job security, and ethical concerns.

A closer examination reveals a fragmented consensus on foundational decisions, like the choice of technologies, development frameworks, and strategic paths. Such divisions reflect more than the nascent state of the new GenAI. Here, things are not just uncertain. They are unknowable.

For financial investors, the takeaway from the utter lack of visibility is stark: AI is a domain where traditional investment wisdom, which relies on forecasting and long-term bets, falters. The vicissitudes we observe, epitomized by Altman's ouster, imply that investment strategies should be nimble, evidence-based, and always mindful of an exit strategy in the AI realm. While somewhat counterintuitive, evidence-based investing could be ideal across the innovation space (as I explained in a recent podcast, the real investment field should be innovation and not AI).

Please visit www.geninnov.ai for previous articles and links to the abovementioned podcast.