This is the book review of Invention and Innovation: A Brief History of Hype and Failure by Vaclav Smil. For all of this post writer's book reviews, visit here
Despite its excessively negative message, "Invention and Innovation" remains a relevant book even for the most optimistic innovators and entrepreneurs. As the author meticulously documents through numerous examples throughout history, the process of innovation carries monumental risks that are too often blithely ignored by those in the field and the media hype around innovations that succeed. From harmful chemicals like DDT and CFCs that showed early warning signs of danger, to speculative projects like the hyperloop transit system critiqued through hard data, the book illuminates the sobering reality that many innovations fail or lead to unintended consequences.
However, the author misses two critical points. First, societies and communities that fail to innovate historically suffer far more across metrics of health, life expectancy, poverty and more compared to those that do attempt innovation, despite its risks. Second, given the unpredictable nature of pioneering new ideas, optimists and dreamers willing to accept some failure must lead the charge into uncharted territories. Innovations rarely emerge from the risk averse. We need visionaries willing to stumble in their pursuit of new frontiers.
Interestingly, in predicting pessimistic outcomes for fields like AI, the author forgets his own lesson that innovation defies prediction. By definition, progress leaps irregularly with "first times" that disrupt the repetitive patterns of history. While failure repeats for decades, suddenly one day our planes flew. Just since this book's late 2022 publication, AI has experienced a transformational phase shift with models like DALL-E 2 and ChatGPT demonstrating new canvases of intelligence. The author would likely be stunned by the field's exponential growth in the past 18 months, let alone its future trajectory.
Problems will always remain. No matter how many innovations, it is unlikely anyone will live forever. We all will have things that will make us frustrated, angry, depressed, or feel like being unfairly treated no matter what is invented or not. There will also be uber-optimists whose proclamations grab the attention, but who do not represent the serious workers in various innovation fields. The book does injustice to the majority in innovation fields who are well aware of the issues raised in here but still believe that the world can be made better.
In conclusion, despite substantive flaws, the book's overriding purpose reminds us that headlong innovation requires caution and wisdom to avoid catastrophe. While optimists drive progress, the pessimists who spotlight potential dangers are equally essential. For innovators most of all, studying the perilous history of innovation remains imperative to navigate its inherent risks en route to unprecedented breakthroughs.
